Wednesday, March 11, 2009

S and P 500 Trend...Two Days Up...Then...

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Chart for S&P 500
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Monday, March 9, 2009

S an P 500 support 652 and dropping March 9

We are using the S and P 500 March futures contract this morning.

Support continues to decline and is now around the 652 area. Price drops more than one percent below this level should find good support today.

There is good news as the momentum behind the downside thrust is slowing. However, the market is still subject to a potential downside market capitulation at any time. A hard downside thrust, or continued slow deterioration is likely to trigger mutual fund redemption's.

Many forecasters are calling for a low around the S and P 500, 600 level. This almost seems like a self fulfilling prophesy coming to fruition. Maybe, maybe not.
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Chart for S&P 500 INDEX March 2009
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Saturday, March 7, 2009

S and P Monthly Chart Signaling Big Rally Ahead

Each Bar on the chart is one month. Since the high in September, 2008 we have closed lower times and higher once (December).

You can see the slope of the market is very severe. This cannot be sustained much longer without a sharp rally to the upside. This really could start at any time.

The bad news is that the market could go to 565 on the S and P 500 before the rally starts. This is the extreme case and would only happen in a severe occurrence of a market capitulation. Given the current political and economic climate you have to believe that anything is possible. Unlikely yes, possible, yes.

For those holding cash, any hard down opening is likely to present an opportunity to buy high quality stocks at low low prices.

I will be monitoring this possible market capitulation around midnight and 7 AM each day. You are welcome to come here and check. You are also welcome to subscribe via email, RSS, or Twitter to get the updates.

Monday, March 2, 2009

S and P 500 nearing support Technician says

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I didn't actually hear this first hand, I read it on the Internet.

A technician at Credit Suisse is forecasting a market bottom for the S and P 500 with a target price of 600-605.

I took a look at the market and I can see where he is getting this. Back in 1995 after breaking the 600 level for the first time the S and P went and forth against that level for about a year and a half. Looking at the chart, 650 also looks like a formidable area also. We could hit either or both of these areas this week.

I can't find my tech "guru" but 603 also looks like a Fibonacci number.

Do we have an tech "gurus" in the house. How about a Gann expert.

Feel free to tell us what you think, technically or fundamentally.

I picked up this thread on Across the Curve.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. In addition to being an experienced writer he taught at the University of Georgia , was an Asociate Director and Limited Partner at Bear Stearns, was CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. Bob currently resides in Delray Beach, FL where he cares for his mother, Dorothy, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. His content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, BlogCritics, and a growing list of newspaper websites (15). Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.




A Tale of Two Stocks Intel and Apple

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Chart for INTEL CORPORATION
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Chart for APPLE INC.
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